Constitutions and Calendars

The Iraqi Constitutional committee has committed to presenting a draft constitution by the August 15 deadline established by the Transitional Administrative Law Convention. With less than two weeks left, however, the committee has yet to agree on the form of government, the role of Islam in government and law or even the country’s name. Chris Allbritton has a good summary of the constitutional differences here. The unresolved issues are the heart of the ethnic and religious conflict that has roiled Iraq since the US destroyed the secular regime of Saddam Hussein and his Ba’athist party. Regardless of the August 15 outcome, disagreement over how mutually suspicious, hostile tribes will co-exist within a single political entity will continue to bedevil American occupiers.

US insistence that Iraq “get on with it” rather than take additional time to look for acceptable compromises or build the trust necessary for cooperation in a hostile political environment demonstrate that the process is not for Iraqis. Rather, the process is cover for an American “cut and run” that will save the Republican party from the wrath of voters, now increasingly skeptical of the war and the leaders who created it. An Iraqi constitution will create the facade of national unity that will allow the US to draw down troops and allow BushCheney to declare “victory”..

This is a tried and true method. It worked well for the British, mired in Iraq after destroying the Ottoman Empire in World War I. Winston Churchill worked diligently to create a government that functioned sufficiently well that the UK could withdraw troops that it did not want to maintain in Iraq. Too costly. He even brought in a monarch who had hoped to rule Lebanon but settled for Iraq. That and a few Royal Air Force planes was enough to allow an orderly withdrawal and continued behind-the-scenes influence.

The scheme worked well enough for the British and other western powers. Less so for the Iraqis. Government under the monarchy was unstable and weak. It was overthrown by a military coup in the late 1950's and a Ba’athist coup about five years later. But Iraqi self-government gave the British a much needed exit.

BushCheney is hoping to do the same. But their plan has a fatal flaw: they don’t plan to leave. Oh sure, they will draw down troops with all the ceremonial fanfare possible (can you say “Mission Accomplished”?) but troops will remain. Even now, American forces and contractors are constructing large, permanent military bases in Iraq. The Largest American Embassy in the World will continue to influence in Iraq and the region.

Actually, a “cut and run” strategy might be the best. It would immediately defuse the insurgents’ major issue, the presence of foreign occupiers. Iraqis would be forced to address their differences on their own. But that won’t happen. BushCheney doesn’t want to leave. They went to war to establish bases and will abandon their dream reluctantly, to the detriment of both America and Iraq. Nor do the Shi’ite leaders want to see American troops leave yet, at least not until the Sunnis are, once and for all, rendered incapable of regaining control of a national government. Unlike the British,
the Americans are not leaving Iraq. Not yet.

So the insurgency will continue. Juan Cole reports that the insurgency has grown in sophistication and capability over the past year. The rate of attacks on American and coalition forces has increased from 47 to 68 over the past year. He also quotes the Baghdad Times:

“...Iraqis of all stripes ... have two demands with regard to the next meeting of Arab leaders, in a couple of days at Sharm el-Sheikh. The first is that the Arab countries should be more vocal and active in condemning acts of terrorism in Iraq, and should do more to stop the infiltration of foreign jihadis. But their other demand was that the Arab nations should pressure the United States to announce a timetable for withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

Despite BushCheney’s plans, we will leave Iraq. . Sooner or later, like the British, Americans will tire of the death, destruction and expense of maintaining our presence in Iraq. If we are lucky, the US will (also like the British) make a somewhat orderly exit. Or it could be more unpleasant. Think Iran. Think Saigon. Whatever the result, thank Bush/Cheney.