Half Measure

The Washington Post reports that climate change scientists are discussing the “tipping point” beyond which change will become irrevocable. Studies of polar ice core samples show that the earth has in the past experienced climate change far greater than any recorded in history. The changes and rate of change in gobal temperatures may well be the precursors of dramatic change, according to scientists. In response, many European nations are reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Other nations pledged reductions but have had difficulty achieving those reductions.

Meanwhile, the United States won’t even commit to reducing emissions.

“...The Bush administration espouses a different approach. [Chief science advisor John] Marburger said that though everyone agrees carbon dioxide emissions should decline, the United States prefers to promote cleaner technology rather than impose mandatory greenhouse gas limits. ‘The U.S. is the world leader in doing something on climate change because of its actions on changing technology,’ he said....”

But what do we want that cleaner technology to do, Mr. Marburger? I would think the point is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Do you not have some expectation that the technology would create a measurable difference in the overall level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? Better technology is only as good as the result it produces. The administration is not asking for any result, only a specific action, which may or may not be as effective as promise.

In performance measurement (of which I am a long-time practitioner) cleaner technology is an Input, something you bring to the specific plan or process that you to create actions or Outputs (what you get as result of the money and effort you invested). In this case the Output is reduced emissions, which according to current models is what causes higher global temperatures. Reducing the temperatures is the Outcome, the result that we want. We can measure the impact of our actions in various indicators of global climate to determining if what we are doing works..

Cleaner technology, is a far cry from being an effective solution for climate change. At least not as long as it constitutes the entire policy. Cleaner technology will be important to reducing greenhouse gases and other constituents of global warming but it is only a partial measure. In the end, we want to see the emissions reduced. For that the world needs specific goals, limits, measurement and reporting. It’s the only way we will know.