Iraq: Speculating the Cost

At his press conference a few weeks ago, BushCheney said that the presence of American forces in Iraq would be decided by “future presidents”. By this admission, we are assured that US troops will be in Iraq until at least January 20, 2009 and quite possibly well beyond. The massive bases now under construction by the US suggest that the American presence in Iraq is planned “well beyond” 2009.

All of which leads me to speculate about the additional costs. Using the Iraq Coalition Casualty website, I did a little ciphering to estimate the additional costs in American blood through the end of BushCheney’s watch. Since the “end of major combat operations” on May 1, 2003, US forces have suffered about two fatalities per day. Non-fatal casualties have totaled 16,111, or 7.4 wounded for each fatality. Being conservative and knowing BushCheney will do everything to reduce casualties to avoid further undermining public confidence in the war, I estimate future casualty rates at a high of 1.5 per day which is less than the actual rate in all but seven months since the invasion. My low estimate is one fatality per day.

That means we can expect between 1,025 and 1,538 more Americans to die in Iraq while BushCheney remains in office with another 7,585 to 11,381 Americans wounded. Added to the already dead and wounded, I estimate that between 3,357 and 3,870 Americans will have died in Iraq by the time BushCheney scuttles into the sunset. Between 24,034 and 28,238 will be wounded.

The financial costs are a bit murkier but the best number I’ve seen at Cost of War which uses the Congressional Research Service estimate of $251 billion as of 31 March 2006, an average of $6.97 billion per month. Unlike the casualties, I don’t expect this average to decline. Most observers expect US air strikes to increase as ground combat declines. These operations are likely to be more costly than ground forces, so I estimate that any savings from reduced ground operations will be eaten up by air operations. Thus, I project future cost based on the current average. That means another $230 billion through the end of 2008 for a total of $480 billion.

Keep in mind that these costs in blood and money only get us to the next president who will decide on the future of American forces in Iraq. Even if that president decides to withdraw all American troops, that action will not occur immediately. Any redeployment will incur additional costs.

These estimates project only the direct costs of the war to the United States. One estimate of the total long term costs to the United States is $2 trillion. Nor have I even considered the costs in Iraqi lives and infrastructure.

In the end all this is speculation. All anyone, including me, can say is that the Iraq war is very, very costly.

But, hey, we got rid of Saddam Hussein, destroyed his weapons of mass destruction, eliminated his support for al Qaeda terrorist training camps and liberated Shi'ite militias.

Priceless.